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It seems that around the major Christian holidays in the US, primarily Christmas and Easter, mainstream media headlines start rolling in about a Gen Z revival. Are we seeing a return to the evangelical world in this younger generation?

I'm going to burst the popular bubble, and I'm going to try to do it with "grace and truth," to borrow the words of John the Apostle.

The reality is Gen Z is not facing revival. In fact, it's quite the opposite. There are traces of certain cohorts getting more deeply involved within the church and religion as a whole, but by and large, Gen Z is becoming disenfranchised with institutional religion and is actually moving more towards spirituality. The data supports this. (Pew Research Center, 2025a; Smith, 2025)

Pew's Religious Landscape Study shows that among adults ages 18–24, 56% identify with a religion, down from 63% in 2014 and 74% in 2007. (Pew Research Center, 2025a)

The Composition Effect

What we are more realistically seeing is the composition effect. This is a concept demographers and social scientists use to explain why a group’s average behavior can shift simply because the makeup of that group changes, not because anyone inside it changed.

Let me illustrate the opposite of this to help it make sense. Think about a startup. That core team is working long hours, staying up late at night with beer and pizza on their desk till 2 a.m., then waking up bright and early the next morning to pitch VCs and try to close their funding round.

They love their company. They'll do anything for their company. But as they get an influx of cash and start to grow, they hire more team members. The composition changes. More people show up to work, but the commitment level is nowhere near that of the founding team. They're no longer in that founder mentality, but a worker mentality, and it shifts.

The opposite is now happening in churches.

The Barna Group shows that among Gen Z individuals who do attend church, they attend 1.9 times per month compared to 1.6 times per month for all churched adults. That is a significant difference (Barna Group, 2025).

But we need to understand what's behind that number. It doesn't say more Gen Zers are going to church. It says the ones who go, go more.

That's not revival. That's a shift in behavior, and it's exactly why holiday headlines can mislead: intensity among the people still showing up can rise at the same time the overall pool continues to thin.

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The Generational Prism (Age - Moment - Label)

To best understand what's happening, let’s use the Generational Prism framework. The Generational Prism allows us to look at the age of a current cohort, the moment in time they were in, and then see if the label fits.

Right now, the median age for Gen Z is 21.4, spanning a wide range from ages 15 through 29. So, to make sense of "revival" claims, we can loosely compare what different generations looked like when the bulk of each generation was around age 21. This isn't a perfect science, it's an approximate lens, but it helps separate what's just young adulthood from what's actually unique to this moment and this cohort. (USAFacts, 2024; NORC, 2020)

A quick note on data: the General Social Survey, one of our most reliable long-run measures of religious affiliation, didn't begin until 1972, which means we don't have the same age-specific precision for Boomers at age 21 that we have for later generations. But Gallup's broader trend reporting gives us a clear enough cultural backdrop for that era. (NORC, 2022; Gallup, 2023)

When Boomers (the median average) were approximately 21 in the mid-to-late 1970s, institutional religion was still the dominant cultural norm in America. Gallup’s long-running trend data show church membership held above 70% among Americans through most of that decade, and “none” as a religious affiliation was genuinely rare making up less than 5% of Americans. The idea of opting out of institutional religion altogether was, for most young Americans at that time, an edge case (Gallup, 2023).

When Gen X was approximately 21, roughly the late 1980s into the early 1990s, the picture was starting to shift. Among 18 - 24-year-olds, only 9% identified with no religious affiliation in 1990. The vast majority still identified institutionally, even if the cultural authority of the church was beginning to erode (NORC, 2014).

When Millennials were approximately 21, somewhere in the early-to-mid 2000s, something had clearly broken. By 2014, that "no religion" number among 18 - 24-year-olds had risen to 33%, up from 9% just two decades earlier (NORC, 2014). In a single generational span, "none" went from the margins to roughly one in three young adults.

Now let’s take a look at Gen Z today. Pew's most recent Religious Landscape Study shows 56% of adults ages 18 - 24 still identify with a religion, meaning roughly 44% do not. (Pew Research Center, 2025a) And actual attendance is even lower: using the American Time Use Survey, Pew finds that among adults born 1995 - 2003, only 11% attended religious services on a given Sunday in 2021, a figure that held essentially flat at 10% by 2024. No surge. No Great Awakening. (Smith, 2025)

And the moment matters. Gen Z is coming of age in a time where algorithms don't just inform us, they sort us. They take our curiosity and turn it into a feed. They take our doubts and turn them into a tribe. Gen Z is just belonging to a new religion

Belief Without Belonging, and Why This Keeps Showing Up

And this isn't something new. In fact, there's older peer-reviewed research that explains why patterns like this keep showing up. Hout and Fischer's work on the rise of "nones" (not to be mistaken with nuns) makes an interesting observation.

They explain that Americans are "decreasingly identify[ing] with organized religions despite still holding religious beliefs." (Hout & Fischer, 2014)

In other words, people leave institutions at a faster rate than they engage in disbelief. The casual cultural Christians stop showing up, and those who remain involved in the traditional religious institutions actually double down and become more committed. And as some news outlets are proclaiming even more radical. Which is where the composition effect that I mentioned earlier comes back around.

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"Spiritual but Not Religious" (SBNR) and Where Gen Z Is Actually Going

One trend we are seeing consistently is the "spiritual but not religious" label, often written about using the acronym SBNR (Pew Research Center, 2023).

Pew finds that 70% of U.S. adults describe themselves as spiritual in some way, including 22% who are "spiritual but not religious."

We're seeing an increase in Gen Z moving from a religious affiliation tied to an institution (like a church) or a traditional framework of religion toward something more spiritual, realizing that they are spiritual in and of themselves. They're considering subscribing to individualism and spiritualism, natural spiritualism, and even things like ayahuasca retreats, meditation, and other forms of entering a transcendent state.

But Gen Z isn't going nowhere. They're going somewhere. And the data is starting to show us where.

Among adults ages 18 - 27, identifying as "more spiritual than religious" climbed from 22% in 1998 to 34.2% by 2018. (NORC, 2020) That trajectory is not random. It matches a generation that still holds transcendent beliefs, just in forms that no longer require membership. Pew finds that among adults ages 18 - 29, 83% believe in God or some higher power, but only 43% describe that as "God as described in the Bible." Another 39% believe in some other higher power or spiritual force (Pew Research Center, 2018). The hunger for a higher being persists. The institution does not.

That spiritual hunger is showing up in measurable ways. The National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health reports that the share of U.S. adults practicing meditation rose from 7.5% in 2002 to 17.3% in 2022, and yoga from 5% to nearly 16% over the same period(National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health, 2022). Pew finds that 77% of adults spend time in nature at least monthly, and 26% say they mainly do so to feel connected, with 18% specifically seeking connection to "something bigger than themselves" (Pew Research Center, 2023).

It is also showing up in older practices, finding new audiences. A 2024 survey finds that nearly a quarter of adults ages 18-29 consult astrology, tarot cards, or a fortune teller at least once a year (Pew Research Center, 2025b). And on the more intensive end, federal surveillance data shows that past-year hallucinogen use among adults ages 19-30 reached 9% in 2023, continuing what the National Institute on Drug Abuse describes as a steep five-year increase (National Institute on Drug Abuse, 2024).

The through-line in all of it is the same: spiritual desire persists, but institutionalized religion is in a free-fall. Gen Z is not becoming a generation of atheists. They are becoming a generation of seekers who increasingly find meaning outside the walls of institutions.

Gender and Religion

And here's where the revival narrative gets even shakier.

Pew's broader conclusion is that recent polling shows no clear evidence of a nationwide religious resurgence among young adults, "especially young men" (Smith, 2025).

But PRRI helps explain why the conversation still feels confusing. For decades, women have been more religious than men. That pattern is changing fast among young adults, and it's mostly because of women's decline.

PRRI reports that among adults ages 18-29, weekly religious service attendance among women dropped from 29% in 2016 to 19% in 2024. That is a significant decline in just 8 years. Men’s involvement stayed relatively flat, 16% in 2016 versus 18% in 2024 (PRRI, 2025). So, by outward appearance, it may seem like more young men are attending traditional churches. But the narrative that Gen Z males are more involved in church would be better framed through the lens that, while young women are leaving the church in droves, young men are remaining faithful at the same rates as previous generations.

Same story with prayer. Weekly personal prayer among women ages 18-29 dropped from 53% in 2016 to 38% in 2024, while men only declined slightly, 38% to 34% (PRRI, 2025).

So yes, among the "religious remnant," some young men may look more visibly intense. But the more disproportionate story is that women are leaving at a faster rate. That's not revival. That's realignment. (PRRI, 2025; Smith, 2025)

Schisms, Hypocrisy, and the Elimination of the Middle

And if you're wondering why Gen Z is disenchanted with institutional religion, we can't ignore the obvious: the church has often looked more fractured than faithful.

From the outside looking in, people have watched churches split over things like baptism (immersion vs. sprinkling; infants vs. adults), communion, women in pastoral roles, music and worship styles, and a dozen other issues that feel, at best, confusing from the onlooker, and at worst, hypocritical. And in an era obsessed with authenticity, hypocrisy is gasoline. The church seems to add to the already existing polarity in our world today. It doesn't seem to be a place of healing and unity.

Before the church starts celebrating the headlines, it may want to look more carefully at the entire picture. The spiritual hunger in Gen Z is real. It has always been real. But, for the first time in history, a generation is feeding that hunger almost entirely outside the walls of the institutional church. Gen Z is searching for grace and truth. They’re just not convinced the church is where they’ll find it.

Thank you for reading!

Until next time,

Works Cited

Barna Group. (2025). Young adults lead resurgence in church attendance.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2015). The composition effect in the labor force participation rate.

Federal Reserve Education. (n.d.). The composition effect.

Gallup. (2023). Religious Americans.

Hout, M., & Fischer, C. S. (2014). Explaining why more Americans have no religious preference: Political backlash and generational succession, 1987–2012. Sociological Science, 1, 423–447.

National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health. (2022). Use of yoga, meditation, and massage: 20-year trends.

National Institute on Drug Abuse. (2024). Cannabis and hallucinogen use among adults remained at historic highs in 2023.

NORC at the University of Chicago. (2014). Fewer Americans affiliate with organized religions, belief and practice constant.

NORC at the University of Chicago. (2020). Spirituality and religion in the United States, 1998–2020.

Payne, K. K. (2021). Median age at first marriage, 2020 (FP-21-12). National Center for Family & Marriage Research, Bowling Green State University.

Pew Research Center. (2018). When Americans say they believe in God, what do they mean?

Pew Research Center. (2023). Spirituality among Americans.

Pew Research Center. (2025a). Religion holds steady in America (Religious Landscape Study, 2023–24).

Pew Research Center. (2025b). 3 in 10 Americans consult astrology, tarot cards, or fortune tellers.

PRRI. (2025). Gen Z, gender, and religion.

Smith, G. A. (2025). Religion holds steady in America. Pew Research Center.

USAFacts. (2024). Who is Gen Z? Key insights in charts.

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